Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead - NYTimes.com

Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead - NYTimes.com:

But if the score is tied, or if it’s a one-run game, a run scored in the eighth will make a huge difference.

That’s where we find ourselves right now in the presidential race. This election is close and is likely to end up that way. There’s about a 50-50 chance that the election will end up within 2.5 percentage points, according to the forecast, against only a 15 percent chance that either candidate will win by five points or more.

For this reason, the percentage estimates in the forecast are likely to be volatile from here on out.